By Brandon Moseley
Alabama Political Reporter
A new CBS poll, conducted by YouGov, released over the weekend shows that Doug Jones’ tactic of winning using accusations that Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore liked to date teenagers, when he was in his 30s, appears to be a disastrous failure.
According to a poll of 1,073 registered voters, if the election were held today: Moore would win handily with 49 percent of the vote. Democratic Clinton era U.S. Attorney Doug Jones would get just 43 percent. Four percent said that they would vote for someone else – there are at least four different write-in campaigns to choose from. Four percent are still undecided.
Among Moore voters, 52 percent say that they are voting for Moore because they like him. 48 percent say that they are voting for Judge Moore because they don’t like Doug Jones. Jones’ extreme views on abortion, sodomy and transgender rights apparently are not playing well with Alabama’s conservative voters. Moore inherited a badly divided Republican electorate. Many suburban and more affluent GOP voters were strong supporters of U.S. Sen. Luther Strange, whom Moore bested in the GOP primary. According to this poll, Moore has largely united the Alabama Republican Party behind his banner. Just 48 percent of Moore supporters say that Roy Moore is the best person for the job. 52 percent answered that they are voting for Moore because they want a senator who will cast conservative votes.
Among Doug Jones voters, 67 percent say that they are voting for Jones because they like him. Just 33 percent are voting for Jones because they don’t like Roy Moore. 43 percent of Jones voters say that they always vote for Democrats, while 32 percent answered that they usually vote for Democrats. Just 16 percent of Jones voters say that they sometimes vote for Democrats, and only nine percent answered that they usually never vote for Democrats but will make an exception this time. In a state where Donald Trump got 63 percent of last year’s presidential vote, Jones needs to win a much more sizable number of Republicans than that.
Moore burst on the scene in the 1990s with his staunch defense of the Ten Commandments, and he is hated today by the Washington Establishments of both political parties because of his outspoken Christian conservatism. That apparently is not hurting him with Alabama voters. An incredible 52 percent of voters answered that they find Roy Moore’s positions on the role of religion in law and government acceptable. Just 37 percent thought that his views were unacceptable. Eleven percent answered that they have not heard enough about them yet.
Of those polled, 30 percent of Alabama voters answered that Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, telling Moore to step aside made them more likely to support Roy Moore, 64 percent said the Majority Leader McConnell had no effect on them, and just six percent thought that McConnell’s opposition made them less likely to support Moore.
Of those polled, 56 percent of Alabama voters believe that it should be illegal for homosexuals to get married. Only 44 percent believe it should be legal. Of those polled, 58 percent believe that abortion should be illegal. Antoher 40 percent believe that immigrants make America a worse place in the long run. Only 32 percent believe that immigrants make American a better place in the long run. Finally, 28 percent either did not know or do not think they make a difference one way or another.
Just 21 percent of voters thought the accusations against Moore are definitely true.
Interestingly, this survey was weighted female heavy with 55 percent of respondents being female, and 45 percent male. Typically in most polls, Moore performs better with white males than any other demographic.
Moore voters also appear to be more energized than Doug Jones voters, with more Moore voters answering that they will definitely be voting than Jones voters, even though Jones is outspending Moore ten to one. Moore has been abandoned by Mitch McConnell and the Republican Establishment and is having to rely almost totally on regular citizens making small donations. Jones, on the other hand, is drawing most of his money from out of state Democrat and Progressive PACs from up north and out in California.
The results by CBS and You Gov reflect most of the polling that has been reported from the last two weeks. According to a poll by Strategy Research and Raycom News, Moore led Jones by +2 for Moore; Emerson had Moore six points over Jones; Change Research had Moore by five over Jones; Sky Research had Moore leading Jones by 8.1 percentage points; and JMC Analytics has it Moore winning by 5 percentage points. The one recent exception was a Saturday poll by the Washington Post and Scharr, in which Jones led Moore by three percentage points. The Washington Post is also the northern paper that broke the story about women accusing Moore of acting inappropriately toward them during the 1970s.
The special election will be on Dec. 12.