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Republican Presidential Race Trending Toward Being Three Person Race

By Brandon Moseley
Alabama Political Reporter

In the race for the Republican Presidential nomination Real Clear Politics has Texas Congressman Ron Paul leading the polls in Iowa with 23.8 percent of the vote as we count down towards the Iowa Caucus on January 3.  Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is in a close second with 20.3 percent.  Former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich is still close at 17.3 percent.  Texas Governor Rick Perry is polling at 11.8 percent, followed by Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachman with 8.3 percent, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum 7 percent, and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman with 3 percent.  The Real Clear Politics number comes from averaging the four results of the most recent polls and there is a lot of variation in the Iowa polling.  For examples, Rasmussen has Romney leading in Iowa by 5 percent while the Iowa State University, Iowa Globe Gazette, channel KCRG poll has Romney in third behind Paul and Gingrich.

In New Hampshire, according to Real Clear Politics, Romney is leading in the polls with 33.8 percent of the vote, followed by Gingrich with 20.8 percent, and Paul with 16.5 percent.  Trailing the three Republican frontrunners are Huntsman with 11.8 percent, Bachman at 3.5 percent, Santorum at 2.5 percent, and Perry has just 1.8 percent.  The New Hampshire Primary will be on January 10.

In the South Carolina primary, Newt Gingrich is leading with 31.7 percent of the vote, followed by Romney with 20.7 percent, and Paul with 8.7 percent.  Among the second tier candidates, Real Clear Politics has Bachman polling at 6.7 percent, Perry has 5.7 percent, Huntsman has 3.3 percent, and Santorum 2.7 percent.

In National polling, Real Clear Politics has former Speaker Gingrich leading with 28 percent of likely Republican primary voters. Former Governor Romney is running a close second at 24.2 percent.  Rep. Paul is polling at 12.4 percent. Gov. Perry and Rep. Bachman each have 6.4 percent of the vote while Senator Santorum is polling at 3.8 percent.

The winner of the Republican nomination will face President Barack Obama in the November 2012 general election.  Currently, Obama is in a statistical tie with a generic unnamed Republican nominee at 43.5 percent to 43.5 percent.

Alabama’s Republican Primary will be on Tuesday March 13, 2012.  Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Bachman, Perry and Santorum have all qualified for the Alabama Primary but it is expected that the field will have narrowed considerably by then.

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Written By

Brandon Moseley is a former reporter at the Alabama Political Reporter.



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