The upcoming 2020 census is extremely critical in Alabama and the rest of the states in the nation, as well. The census affects the number of seats a state has in the U.S. Congress and ultimately the number of Electoral College Votes you have for president. Also, very importantly, the amount of federal funds the state receives.
Alabama is growing incrementally, but not as fast as other states. Especially our neighboring states of Georgia and Florida and certainly not as much as California and Texas. Therefore, the bottom line is we are projected to lose a Congressional District to one of the aforementioned states.
We currently have seven seats in Congress. We will more than likely go to six. The census will be in 2020. We will lose our seat in the 2022 elections.
Our U.S. Constitution outlines that the Census be taken every 10 years. The language calling for the census states, “People are to be counted.” Therefore, the question becomes are just U.S. citizens counted or are citizens and illegal aliens both counted.
Obviously, for political reasons, Republicans and more importantly the Republican Trump administration are vehemently in favor of counting only U.S. Citizens. Liberals in California want illegals counted.
The trump administration through his Commerce Department Secretary, William Ross, asked the Census Bureau to include the citizenship question on the census form. This question of inclusion has been on the table since 2018. It has been pending in the Supreme Court. In June the U.S. Supreme Court in a 5-to-4 decision ruled that the question should not be asked.
This SCOTUS decision is bad for Alabama and other Republican states. The ruling to not include the citizenship question pretty much assures that Alabama will lose a congressional seat. We may have anyway, however, this hammers the final nail in the coffin. Illegal immigrants in California will be counted and our seat will be ceded to them.
Even though the official U.S. Census is taken every decade, the U.S. Census Bureau operates daily and gives preliminary updates on census trends. That is how, as early as four years ago, they were projecting the loss of a seat in Alabama. The loss of the citizenship question is just the coup de gras.
The Census Bureau has recently also released new city population estimates that cover the period of July 2017 throughJuly 2018. In Alabama, the city estimates show that Huntsville continues on a fast track towards becoming Alabama’s largest city, while Birmingham, Montgomery and Mobile continue to drift lower. The two major college towns, Tuscaloosa and Auburn, are growing rapidly as are several cities in Baldwin County.
The once Magic City of Birmingham is losing population. However, the metropolitan Jefferson-Shelby County areas are steady. The migration of Jefferson countians to the suburbs of Shelby is a trend that is not new, and will likely continue.
The same trend is prevalent in the Mobile-Baldwin metro area. The population of Mobile is simply transferring to Baldwin County.
Montgomery continues to steadily lose people. In the last few decades the population has moved to Autauga and Elmore counties. Indications are that some of Montgomery’s flight may be to Auburn.
Tuscaloosa’s growth is significant, primarily due to the growth of the University of Alabama. Tuscaloosa has added 11,000 people since 2010 and Auburn has added 13,900.
When you include the entire Madison-Huntsville-Limestone metropolitan area in the equation, the growth of the Huntsville metropolitan area is amazing. When you add the entire Tennessee Valley and Marshall-Guntersville Lake area into the parameters, the growth is tremendous. The growth in the Huntsville area is real. Whereas the metro areas of Birmingham and Mobile are simply shifting their populations to Shelby and Baldwin counties.
If you think the Huntsville-Limestone-Tennessee Valley has grown in the past 10 years, you ain’t seen nothing yet. It will grow exponentially over the next decade. Given the myriad of major economic development and manufacturing announcements already announced, it will be one of the hottest and most prosperous areas in the nation in the next decade.
In addition, Senator Richard Shelby will probably continue to be Chairman of the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee for three more years, which will allow the Redstone Arsenal and high technology federal advancements to prosper. He has recently announced that the largest FBI headquarters in America will be placed in Huntsville.
Folks, it is obvious that the future growth and prosperity in Alabama will be in Huntsville and North Alabama.
See you next week.
Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Opinion | For Coach Tub, no thinking required
Has Tommy Tuberville ever had an original thought? It doesn’t sound like it. Coach Tub basically spews Republican talking points and keeps his mouth firmly locked onto Donald Trump. He disrespects Alabama voters so much that he thinks that’s all he needs to do to win a place in the U.S. Senate.
Tuberville recently addressed the St. Clair County Republican Party at its September meeting. As reported by APR, Tuberville is quoted as saying the following, and I’ll offer a short rebuttal. I’m doing this because Tuberville is clearly afraid to death to debate his opponent, U.S. Sen. Doug Jones.
So here goes:
Tuberville: “America is about capitalism, not socialism. I think we are going to decide which direction we are going to go in the next few years.”
Me: We decided which way we were going to go years ago, when the federal government started subsidies for oil and gas companies, farmers and other big industry and business. That, coach, is your so-called “socialism.”
I’m not necessarily opposed to subsidies to boost business, depending on the cause, but I’m not going to let a dimwitted, know-nothing, mediocre, former football coach pretend we don’t already have “socialism” in this country.
What Tuberville really means is that he’s against “socialism” like Medicare or Medicaid or Social Security or food assistance or health insurance. He’s a millionaire already, so there’s no need for him have empathy for or support a safety net for people who are less fortunate socially and economically. That’s Tuberville’s “socialism,” and the Republican Party’s “socialism,” and Trump’s “socialism.”
That’s a cruel, mean perspective that would cast aside the great majority of Americans for the rich (Tuberville, Trump) and connected and, where Trump is concerned, the fawning.
Tuberville: “I am not a Common Core guy. I believe in regular math. We need to get back to teaching history.”
Me: I would love to ask Coach Tubby, one-on-one, exactly what he thinks “Common Core” is. I’ll guarantee you he can’t explain more than he already has. “I believe in regular math?” There is no other math. It’s math. Does he think there’s a math where 1+1=3? There isn’t one. There are a variety of ways to teach math, but there’s only math, not a “fake” math or a “Republican” math or a “Democratic” math or, God forbid, a “Socialist” math.
And when Coach Tommy said, “We need to get back to teaching history,” one wonders if he’s ever been into a classroom. We know more than a few of his former players weren’t in many classrooms, if reports are correct. But they always played the game under his uninspired coaching.
Of course schools teach history.
The history Coach T. is talking about is Donald Trump’s “white” history, the one we’ve been teaching in our schools forever. Not real history; you know, the one where the United States was founded as a slave-holding nation, where Native Americans were massacred and starved by the hundreds of thousands, where white supremacy was codified within our laws, where any color but white was subjugated. That history. The history that is finally fading away, so we can really see where we’ve been as a nation—so we know where, as a nation, we need to go.
Tuberville: Tuberville said he supports following the Constitution and appointing a replacement for Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died Friday.
Me: Well, of course he does. Tuberville doesn’t have an independent thought in his body, and Donnie told him this is what he’s supposed to think. The big question: How much will a Senator Tuberville be able to function as a member of a minority party in the Senate — with no Papa Trump in the White House to tell him what to do?
Both scenarios are real possibilities, if not likelihoods.
There is no question that Doug Jones is far more qualified than Tuberville. Jones can work across the aisle, which will be vitally important if Democrats take control of the Senate. Jones has his own thoughts, which sometimes go against the Democratic Party’s wishes. Jones is independent, smart and represents Alabama well.
Tuberville is a failed football coach who lives in Florida. That’s about it.
Opinion | All politics is local. All of Alabama’s mayors races this year
With it being a presidential election year and an election for one of our United States Senate Seats and all of the interest that goes along with those high-profile contests, it has gone under the radar that most of our cities in the state had elections for mayor and city council last month.
Mayors serve four-year terms and to most Alabamians they are the most important vote they will cast this year.
The job of mayor of a city is a difficult and intricate fulltime, 24-hours-a-day dedication to public service.
They make more decisions that affect the lives of their friends and neighbors than anyone else. The old maxim, “All politics is local,” is epitomized in the role of mayor. Folks, being mayor of a city is where the rubber meets the road.
In looking all over the state, it appears that most Alabamians are content with the jobs their mayor is doing. In almost every contest around the state, the incumbent mayor turned away the challenger usually by a wide margin. Indeed, a good many of the incumbent mayors in the Heart of Dixie had no opposition.
Many of these incumbent mayors were reelected without opposition. Gordon Stone, the mayor of Alabama’s fastest growing community, Pike Road, will be entering his fifth term as mayor. Pretty soon Pike Road will have to start calling themselves a city.
Vestavia’s Mayor, Ashley Curry, won a second term without opposition. This former retired FBI agent has done a yeoman’s job managing this upscale, Jefferson County suburb.
Jasper Mayor, David O’Mary, who escaped opposition, will begin a second term. He has run Jasper like a well-tuned engine. Albertville mayor, Tracy Honea, garnered a third term without opposition. Luverne Mayor Ed Beasley was also unopposed.
In the contested races, most of the matchups were no contest. Two of Alabama’s largest and most prosperous cities, Huntsville and Hoover, had mayoral races. Tommy Battle coasted to an easy 78 to 22 reelection victory in Huntsville. If Kay Ivey opts to not run for reelection in 2022, Battle will be favored to win the governor’s race. However, being Governor of Alabama would be a demotion to being Mayor of Huntsville.
Hoover citizens must approve of Mayor Frank Brocato’s job performance. Brocato trounced Hoover City Council President Gene Smith by a 76 to 24 margin.
Opelika’s popular and effective, longtime mayor, Gary Fuller, turned back his challenger 66 to 34 to win a fifth term.
In Cullman incumbent mayor, Woody Jacobs, won a second term overwhelmingly. Hamilton Mayor Bob Page won a second term. Troy’s 48-year-old mayor, Jason Reeves, won reelection to a third four-year term with 74 percent of the vote. Incumbent Eufaula Mayor Jack Tibbs won an impressive 68 percent victory for reelection over two opponents.
Prattville Mayor Bill Gillespie may have turned in the most impressive showing. He shellacked former City Councilman Dean Argo 70 to 30. His fellow citizens must approve of frugality with their city finances. Wetumpka’s popular and hardworking, longtime mayor, Jerry Willis, turned back his challenger by a 69 to 31 margin. In neighboring Millbrook incumbent mayor, Al Kelley, won reelection 67 to 33. Mayor Kelley has overseen the growth of his city from 6,000 in population to over 20,000. Tallassee reelected Mayor John Hammock to a second term.
Clanton lost their mayor of three decades, Billy Joe Driver, to COVID-19 this year. His successor will be Jeff Mims, who won the election in the Peach City. Mike Oakley won the mayor’s race in Centreville with a 60 percent margin. It is proper and fitting that an Oakley will be Mayor of Centreville.
Bessemer Mayor Kenneth Gulley won a landslide reelection garnering 68 percent of the vote. Incumbent Pell City Mayor Bill Pruitt won reelection by an impressive 73 to 27 margin.Longtime Greenville Mayor Dexter McLendon won reelection in the Camellia City. Opp’s first female mayor, Becky Bracke, won a second term with 60 percent of the vote.
There were two mayoral upsets on August 25. Scottsboro’s incumbent mayor was defeated by challenger Jimmy McCamy.In the thriving, growing city of Fairhope challenger Sherry Sullivan trounced incumbent mayor Karin Wilson.
There are runoffs for mayor in several major cities, including Enterprise, Ozark, Selma, Tuskegee, Alexander City and Northport. These cities will elect their mayors on October 6 in runoff elections.
Some of you may be wondering about two of the most populous cities. Tuscaloosa and Dothan have their mayoral races next year in August 2021. Tuscaloosa’s Walt Maddox and Dothan’s Mark Saliba will be tough to beat. All politics is local.
If you have not been counted in the census, you have not got many more shopping days to Christmas.
Opinion | That climate change hoax is killing us
I grew up with hurricanes. For my first 11 years, my parents and I lived on the Texas Gulf Coast, near Beaumont. My father was transferred by the company he worked for, Texas Gulf Sulfur, to deep South Louisiana in 1967. We lived in Houma, in Terrebonne Parish, but Dad worked near Larose, in Lafourche Parish.
Hurricanes were regular events in Southeastern Texas and South Louisiana. Still are, but in much more frequent numbers. And Alabama gets clobbered every so often, most recently yesterday and today. Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores, and you can be assured the damage will be extensive, especially from flooding.
Flooding was a big factor in Texas hurricanes too, when I lived there. Hurricane Carla, in 1961, devastated High Island, not far from our home. Flooding was widespread. Carla was a Category 4 storm. But notably, that September, Carla was only the third named storm of the hurricane season.
This year, we’re running out of names. Striking Alabama this week, only a few days after Carla struck Southeastern Texas in 1961, Sally is toward the end of the hurricane alphabet. The National Hurricane Center and World Meteorological Organization are literally running out of names for storms this year.
Earlier this week, and maybe still, there were five named storms in the Atlantic. This is only the second time on record that five named storms are in the Atlantic at the same time. And they’re using up the Alphabet. The first time this happened was 1971, at a time when humans were first becoming aware of climate warming.
Little do we know, that before Sally decided to squat on Alabama, Hurricane Paulette made landfall in Bermuda on early Monday morning. There are so many hurricanes around, we can’t even keep up with them.
They’re like Republican scandals.
Probably more than any other indicator, hurricanes tell the story of climate change, the very real climate change that Donald Trump and many Republicans deny or call a hoax.
Like the COVID-19 Pandemic. Like so many events that Trump and Trump Republicans can’t (or won’t) believe. Like the corruption that permeates the Trump administration. Like the wildfires destroying the far West Coast states.
That’s not climate change, claims Trump. It’s because California won’t sweep the forests. I call BS. Even on California being responsible for sweeping. Most of the forestland in California is federal land. Most of the burning areas are on or near federal trees. Yet, the state of California spends more money on forest management than the federal government, which owns most of the land. That’s the truth. No hoax.
Trump should order secret federal teams of ICE forest sweepers to do their jobs.
The hoax from Republicans and the Trump administration is that crazy antifa hit squads are invading the West Coast to reign terror on the populations there. National security experts continue to assert that white supremacists and nationalists are the most dangerous domestic terror threat. But Trump defends those radicals – “they are very fine people” — because they hold up some mysterious white heritage above all others. If Trump is anything, he’s the whitest Angry White Man ever.
Climate change is real. The coronavirus pandemic exists. White nationalists are the most serious domestic terror threat in this country.
Black lives do matter.
Yet, once again and often, Trump shows the orange-hued emperor has no clothes. As Stormy Daniels has previously said, that is not a good look.
Opinion | The presidential race is underway
Now that the national political party conventions are over and the nominees have been coronated, the battle royale for the White House is in full throttle. The nominees, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, will shatter the age barrier — whoever is elected will be the oldest person ever elected president.
If Trump is re-elected, he will be 75 years old when sworn in. If Biden wins, he will be close to 79 years old. When I was a young man, folks at that age were in the nursing home — if they were alive. By comparison, 60 years ago, when John F. Kennedy was elected, he was 42.
If, by chance, you are worried about their traversing all over the 50 states and keeling over in the process, calm your fears. Trump will campaign in only about 10 to 12 states, and Biden will campaign in probably only two. Why, you might ask? There are only 10 or 12 states that matter in a presidential contest.
Under our Electoral College system, the candidate that gets one more popular vote than the other gets all of that state’s electoral votes.
The country is divided like never before in our history. You either live in a red Republican state, like Alabama, or a blue Democratic state, like California. You might say the hay is in the barn in all but about 10 battleground, so-called “swing states.”
There are 40 states that it really does not matter who the Republican nominee is, one or the other of the two party’s candidates are going to win that state and get all of that state’s electoral votes.
Our national politics has become so partisan and divided with such a vociferous divide that old Biden will carry California by a 60-40 margin, and Trump will carry Alabama by a 60-40 margin. Unfortunately for Trump, Alabama only has nine electoral votes. California has 55.
The election is won or lost in swing states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
It is in these six states that all the campaign money will be spent and where the two aged candidates might campaign. It will all boil down to certain zip codes in these six states. Current polling has Biden ahead of Trump in most of the battleground states.
Trump, for the first three years of his presidency, reigned over a tremendous economic boom. He had a fighting chance at re-election based on one factor: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
All that changed in March when the coronavirus pandemic hit our nation and devastated our economy. All the growth of three years has been devastated. During the same month of March, the aging Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, captured the Democratic nomination from Bernie Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist.
Under the Electoral College system, Trump has to carry most of the key battleground states in order to win. Current polling has Biden ahead of Trump in most, if not all the pivotal swing states because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
When the economy was busting through the roof, Trump could claim credit for the thriving economy. Likewise, the economic recession caused by the coronavirus is not Trump’s fault. However, it happened under his watch. There is a tried and true political maxim: “If you claim credit for the rain, then you gonna get the blame for the drought.”
There is also a cardinal rule in politics: all politics is local. Folks, Biden was born and raised in Pennsylvania — in the blue-collar city of Scranton, to be exact. Even if Trump were to miraculously carry all five of the large, pivotal states, he will have a hard time carrying Pennsylvania.
I know most of you reading this do not like to hear this dour outlook for Trump. But there is hope. First, I am pretty good at predicting and analyzing Alabama political races — not so much when it comes to national politics. In fact, I am usually wrong.
Another golden, proven caveat in politics: they only count the votes of the people who show up to vote. Older voters tend to be Republican. And older voters are the ones that show up to vote.
We will see in six short weeks.