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Trump in tight race with Democratic rivals in battleground states

President Donald Trump speaking in 2017 just outside Harrisburg. (Staff Sgt. Tony Harp/U.S. Air National Guard)

Monday, the New York Times and Siena College released battleground state polls that show President Donald J. Trump in a tight race against all three top Democrats in six key battleground states.

Those states are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

If the race were today, Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, has a lead over Trump only in the state of Arizona. Trump has a three point lead over Warren in Florida.

Trump has a lead in North Carolina against all three.

Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, leads Trump in three of the six.

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump in four of the six.

Biden did better than Sanders and Warren; but his leads were very small: five points in Arizona, three points in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and two points in Florida.

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The polling is troubling for Democrats because it shows the President within striking distance of an electoral college win, even though a recent NBC News national poll had Pres. Trump trailing Biden by as much as nine points in the popular vote and Democrats and their media allies have been hammering the president with impeachment coverage for weeks.

“The difference between winning California by 15 or 20 points doesn’t matter,” said North Carolina based Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson. “Winning states like Wisconsin or Michigan or North Carolina by one or two points or losing them by one or two points is what matters.”

“Any Democrat who looks at that data should be concerned,” said Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf. “The blue collar rift in this country hasn’t been healed in any way and Trump still commands tremendous loyalty among his supporters.”

While Biden performs better than Warren or Sanders, there is no assurance that Biden will be the nominee.

The former Vice President has a 12-point lead nationally going into the Democratic primaries and caucuses over Warren and Sanders but is currently trailing in Iowa and New Hampshire.

According to the Real Clear Politics rolling average Biden is in third in Iowa behind Warren and Pete Buttigieg followed by Sanders. There Warren is at 22.3 percent, Buttigieg is at 17.4, Biden at 15.7, and Sanders at 15.3.

Next on the calendar is New Hampshire, which is entirely in the Boston media market, Warren’s home. She is presently leading there with 25 percent support to Biden’s 21, followed by Sanders at 20 and Buttigieg at 8.7 percent.

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Biden has strong leads in Nevada and South Caroline; but will those evaporate if Warren or Sanders appear to have momentum coming off of Iowa and New Hampshire wins?

Biden is also receiving criticism over his own alleged corruption in the Ukraine scandal.

As Democrats beat up on Trump over the allegation that Trump threatened to withhold military aid to Ukraine unless the country investigated Biden; Republicans continue to back the former Vice President.

Congressman Bradley Byrne, R-Montrose, recently told a group in Gadsden: “A Ukrainian oligarch employed the son of the Vice President for $50,000 a month. Hunter Biden has no background in energy and has no background in Ukraine. If his last name had been Byrne, and not Biden, he would not have gotten that money.”

A recent Morning Consult polls of 5,000 likely Democratic voters showed that Warren is far and away the leading second choice of Democratic voters. As candidates, like Francis “Beto” O’Rourke drop out of the race, Warren should pick up further momentum.

The Alabama presidential primary will be on March 3.

Original reporting by the Hill’s Niall Stanage, the New York Times, NBC News, Real Clear Politics, and Morning Consult contributed to this report.

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Brandon Moseley is a former reporter at the Alabama Political Reporter.

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