Monday, the New York Times and Siena College released battleground state polls that show President Donald J. Trump in a tight race against all three top Democrats in six key battleground states.
Those states are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If the race were today, Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, has a lead over Trump only in the state of Arizona. Trump has a three point lead over Warren in Florida.
Trump has a lead in North Carolina against all three.
Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, leads Trump in three of the six.
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump in four of the six.
Biden did better than Sanders and Warren; but his leads were very small: five points in Arizona, three points in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and two points in Florida.
The polling is troubling for Democrats because it shows the President within striking distance of an electoral college win, even though a recent NBC News national poll had Pres. Trump trailing Biden by as much as nine points in the popular vote and Democrats and their media allies have been hammering the president with impeachment coverage for weeks.
“The difference between winning California by 15 or 20 points doesn’t matter,” said North Carolina based Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson. “Winning states like Wisconsin or Michigan or North Carolina by one or two points or losing them by one or two points is what matters.”
“Any Democrat who looks at that data should be concerned,” said Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf. “The blue collar rift in this country hasn’t been healed in any way and Trump still commands tremendous loyalty among his supporters.”
While Biden performs better than Warren or Sanders, there is no assurance that Biden will be the nominee.
The former Vice President has a 12-point lead nationally going into the Democratic primaries and caucuses over Warren and Sanders but is currently trailing in Iowa and New Hampshire.
According to the Real Clear Politics rolling average Biden is in third in Iowa behind Warren and Pete Buttigieg followed by Sanders. There Warren is at 22.3 percent, Buttigieg is at 17.4, Biden at 15.7, and Sanders at 15.3.
Next on the calendar is New Hampshire, which is entirely in the Boston media market, Warren’s home. She is presently leading there with 25 percent support to Biden’s 21, followed by Sanders at 20 and Buttigieg at 8.7 percent.
Biden has strong leads in Nevada and South Caroline; but will those evaporate if Warren or Sanders appear to have momentum coming off of Iowa and New Hampshire wins?
Biden is also receiving criticism over his own alleged corruption in the Ukraine scandal.
As Democrats beat up on Trump over the allegation that Trump threatened to withhold military aid to Ukraine unless the country investigated Biden; Republicans continue to back the former Vice President.
Congressman Bradley Byrne, R-Montrose, recently told a group in Gadsden: “A Ukrainian oligarch employed the son of the Vice President for $50,000 a month. Hunter Biden has no background in energy and has no background in Ukraine. If his last name had been Byrne, and not Biden, he would not have gotten that money.”
A recent Morning Consult polls of 5,000 likely Democratic voters showed that Warren is far and away the leading second choice of Democratic voters. As candidates, like Francis “Beto” O’Rourke drop out of the race, Warren should pick up further momentum.
The Alabama presidential primary will be on March 3.
Original reporting by the Hill’s Niall Stanage, the New York Times, NBC News, Real Clear Politics, and Morning Consult contributed to this report.
Secretary of State to evaluate all county registrars
This week, Secretary of State John H. Merrill notified all 204 Registrars in the State of Alabama that their performances would be evaluated following the November 3, 2020 General Election.
“Every agent of the state should be held accountable for their actions – especially those who are tasked with protecting the opportunity for Alabamians to exercise their constitutional right to vote. These evaluations will ensure that Registrars are completing their duties in serving the people of their respective county,” stated Secretary Merrill.
Beginning December 1, 2020, the Office of the Secretary of State will be traveling to all 67 counties to meet with and confirm whether or not each registrar is completing his or her assigned duties.
Section 17-4-35 of the Code of Alabama requires the Supervisor of Voter Registration to evaluate Registrars on the performance of their lawful functions. Section 17-3-2 requires the Secretary of State to prescribe guidelines to assist the State Board of Appointment to determine the qualifications of the members of the Boards of Registrars.
The qualifications are as follows:
- Capable of following Alabama’s Ethics Laws
- Self-motivated, reliable, responsible, accountable
- Resident of county
- Qualified elector of county (registered to vote)
- High school diploma or equivalent
- Computer skills (Microsoft Office competency including Word, Excel, Outlook)
- Proficient in utilizing an email account
- Proficient in typing (word and data processing)
- Ability to utilize a computer, scanner, printer, label-maker, and camera
- Map reading skills (understanding of local, county, and state district lines, precincts, and polling places)
- Excellent communication and organizational skills, including customer service skills to assist citizens, voters, election officials, and other offices in-person, by email, and via telephone
- Understanding and willingness to express office etiquette
- Ability to work Monday through Friday and some weekends during intervals of the year in preparation of local, county, and state elections
- Reliable and responsible for working assigned days as agreed upon by the Board of Registrars
- Must be willing to consider the registrar position as the primary occupation, and must be available for working the normal business hours of the office
- Must have reliable transportation to and from the office location
- Understanding of confidentiality and security of private information
- Willing to retain and protect private information not available to the public
- Ability to travel to mandatory training sessions one or more times a year throughout the state
- Required to be a team player and work alongside two other board members in close proximity in the office setting
- Understanding of Title 17 of the Code of Alabama, the Alabama Administrative Code, and Alabama Attorney General Opinions that apply to the position
- Willingness to study and learn daily functions of the office using the Alabama Boards of Registrars Handbook and other guidance from the Alabama Secretary of State
- Proficient in managing, filing, and storing extremely important and permanent documents received in the office, including voter registration applications and voter file maintenance records
- Capable of learning to utilize multiple systems of software related to voter registration and the Alabama free Photo Voter ID
- Must be unbiased and completely non-partisan during office hours and during any point in which representing the office
- Ability to form positive working relationships with local, county, and state election officials and be cooperative and professional when working with other offices
Evaluations will be made public, following completion.
Alabama House District 49 major party candidate qualifying is closed
Tuesday, the Alabama Republican Party closed its candidate qualifying period for the Alabama House of Representatives District 49 special primary election.
The following individuals have qualified to run as Republicans for the District 49 seat: Russell Bedsole, James Dean, Chuck Martin, Jackson McNeely, Mimi Penhale, and Donna Strong.
The Alabama Political Reporter talked Wednesday to the Alabama Democratic Party and they have also closed qualifying. Cheryl Patton has qualified to run as a Democrat for the seat.
The vacancy in House District 49 was created when State Representative April Weaver (R-Briarfield) announced her resignation to accept an appointment with the Trump administration as a regional director of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).
House District 49 consists of portions of Bibb, Shelby and Chilton Counties. The winner will serve the remainder of April Weaver’s term which ends in late 2022.
The special Republican primary election for House District 49 will be held on Tuesday, August 4, 2020. Since only Patton qualified as a Democrat there will be no need for a Democratic Party primary. If a Republican runoff election is needed, it will be held on Tuesday, September 1, 2020. The winner of the Republican nomination will face Ms. Patton in the special general election to be held on Tuesday, November 17, 2020, two weeks after the general election on November 3.
Coastal 150 endorses Jerry Carl for Congress
Wednesday, Coastal 150 announces their endorsement of Republican Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl for Alabama’s First Congressional District.
Wiley Blankenship is the Executive Director of Coastal 150.
“Our members believe that Jerry Carl is the right person to serve our region in Congress.” Blankenship said. “He understands our unique needs and supports our shared vision for coastal Alabama. We expect that Mr. Carl will represent Coastal Alabama well and look forward to working with him in Washington. “The experience, character and leadership that he brings to the office is what we believe is necessary to solve the challenges facing our region and our nation. “
“In case you missed it, our campaign has picked up some huge endorsements recently,” Carl said. “t’s an honor to be endorsed by these well-respected conservative leaders who know that I will fight for south Alabama in Congress.”
Carl has also been endorsed by the Alabama Farmers Federation, former State Representative Chris Pringle, and Wes Lambert.
Jerry Carl was born in Mobile, started his first company at the age of 25 and grew that small business into numerous other companies throughout the region. In all, Jerry has started over ten different companies ranging from real estate to healthcare and timber, to even the manufacturing of church furniture. Carl and his wife Tina have been married for over 37 years. They have children and grandchildren.
When Jerry was frustrated with the direction of Mobile’s local government, he ran for County Commission where he still serves today. On the county commission he has been a vocal fiscal hawk and advocate for pro-growth, job-creating policies, and is laser‑focused on creating economic opportunities so good-paying jobs can be created.
Carl is an avid hunter, a lifelong supporter of Second Amendment rights, and believes all human life should be protected from the moment of conception.
Carl is promising to build the wall along our southern border, “stop the liberals from imposing a 90% tax rate on hard-working Alabamians,” and “stand with Trump to do what’s right and fight for us.”
Coastal 150 is a comprehensive group of community leaders who work from a grassroots level to the highest levels of government to further the mission of Coastal Alabama Partnership to make coastal Alabama the place to live, work and play along the Gulf Coast. Coastal 150 gives all regional leaders an opportunity to be involved in the development of our coastal region’s bright future.
Carl faces former State Senator Bill Hightower in the July Republican primary runoff. The eventual Republican nominee will face the winner of the Democratic primary runoff. between James Averhart and Kiani Gardner, in the November general election.
First Congressional District incumbent Congressman Bradley Byrne (R-Montrose) is not seeking re-election.
Alabama Republicans will hold summer meeting August 1
The Alabama Republican Party announced Tuesday that the state executive committee will meet on Saturday, August 1.
The Alabama Republican Party Summer Meeting is scheduled to be at the Trussville Civic Center, 5381 Trussville Clay Road, Trussville, AL 35173.
“We will be meeting in person and will be following all social distancing guidelines as applicable at the meeting time,” wrote Alabama Republican Party Chairman Terry Lathan. “As the guidelines change, the ALGOP will plan accordingly for a safe, in person business meeting. The civic center can accommodate the social distancing guidelines with some alternations. However, as of today, special event buildings are closed. We will look for a backup place in case we need one. For now, our meeting is booked at the Trussville Civic Center.”
“Because of the guidelines that require distancing and not knowing what the future brings, the luncheon fundraiser we had scheduled prior to our meeting will be postponed,” Lathan explained. “Seating for 8-10 people at a table is not conducive for now- hopefully this will change sooner than later. It takes us months to prepare for 500 at our dinners, luncheons and meetings. The virus situation has hijacked many of our choices. Stay tuned for information about an exciting event later in the fall.”
Lathan said that, “The guidelines are fluid and our plan will need to adjust accordingly.”
“Please be assured that our team will be focused on having a safe and efficient Summer Meeting on August 1.”
Re-electing Donald Trump and defeating Democratic incumbent Sen. Doug Jones are the focuses of the Alabama Republican Party. Tommy Tuberville and Jeff Sessions are in the July 14 Republican Primary runoff seeking that nomination.
The Alabama Republican Party holds six of the state’s seven congressional seats. They are not challenging incumbent Terri Sewell, D-Selma.
Republican incumbents Mo Brooks of Huntsville and Gary Palmer of Hoover do not have Democratic challengers.
Republicans are hoping to re-elect incumbent Congressmen Robert Aderholt and Mike Rogers who face Democratic challengers. The 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts are both vacant.
In CD1 Bill Hightower faces Jerry Carl in the Republican Party primary runoff. In CD2 Barry Moore and Jeff Coleman are seeking the GOP nomination. Both eventual nominees will face Democratic opponents in the fall.
The Alabama Republican Party holds every statewide office. The highest-profile state office on the November ballot is Public Service Commission President where the Alabama Republican Party hopes to re-elect incumbent Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh.
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