A newly released public opinion survey of likely Republican Primary voters in Alabama’s House District 38 shows Kristin Nelson with a commanding lead heading into the Oct. 21, 2025 special primary to replace former Representative Debbie Wood, who recently stepped down.
The survey, conducted September 8–9 by Montgomery-based Strategy Management, LLC, revealed Nelson far ahead of rivals Garrett Dixon and Micah Messer in both initial and forced ballot tests.
In the initial ballot test, Nelson secured 41.09 percent of the vote, with Dixon trailing at 10.55 percent and Messer at 6.18 percent. Undecided voters represented the largest single bloc at 42.18 percent. When forced to choose only among the three candidates, Nelson’s support surged to 60.73 percent, while Dixon improved to 21.82 percent and Messer rose to 17.45 percent.
Nelson’s lead was consistent across gender and age groups. Among men, she drew 40.15 percent, with Dixon at 12.12 percent and Messer at 5.3 percent. Among women, Nelson led at 41.96 percent, with Dixon at 9.09 percent and Messer at 6.99 percent. Voters aged 55 and older showed similar results, with Nelson at 37.43 percent, Dixon at 12.3 percent and Messer at 6.42 percent.
Undecided voters also leaned heavily toward Nelson when pressed to choose. Nearly half, 48.28 percent, indicated they would support her, compared to 26.72 percent for Dixon and 25 percent for Messer.
The survey also highlighted the top issues driving voter concerns: cutting taxes and reducing spending (20.73 percent), investing in schools and enhancing education (19.27 percent), and fighting crime and increasing public safety (18.18 percent). These priorities were consistent among undecided voters as well.
The findings suggest Nelson enters the race as the clear frontrunner, with momentum in Chambers County and a strong base of support. However, with more than 40 percent of voters still undecided—most of them in Lee County—the contest leaves room for movement. For Dixon and Messer, the challenge will be consolidating support among Lee County voters to narrow Nelson’s advantage.
The poll surveyed 275 likely Republican primary voters and carries a margin of error of ±5.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. Strategy Management emphasized that the survey was conducted independently and is not affiliated with any of the campaigns.
