The 2026 election year began on May 19 when campaign fundraising could begin. Our elections will be May 19, 2026. Our Republican primary that day, and subsequent runoffs four weeks later, will be our election day for all statewide offices. Winning the Republican Primary for state office is tantamount to election in Alabama.
Qualifying for all offices next year will be in January. However, for all practical purposes, the primary races are set and the horses are in the chute. It will be a four-month sprint from mid-January to mid-May. All 105 State House Seats and all 35 State Senate Seats are up for election. However, State Senate and House Seats are becoming analogous to Congressional Seats. Very few incumbents are ever defeated, or even challenged. Over 80 percent of the legislature is running unopposed. There are only three to four open Senate Seats. The makeup of the State Senate will probably remain 28 Republicans and 7 Democrats.
Since all of our statewide offices are held by Republicans and will remain that way, the endorsements and campaign contributions from all of the major pro-business organizations in the state flow to the Republican candidates. These important groups are the Business Council of Alabama, Manufacturing Alabama, the Alabama Forestry Association, and especially ALFA.
Coach Tommy Tuberville has received all of the above organizations’ endorsements in his cakewalk tour to the Governor’s office.
The brass ring of Alabama politics, the governor’s race, will be uneventful given Tuberville’s uncontested victory is inevitable. However, there will be a handful of important statewide battles that will be close, and the ALFA endorsement will be critical in those races.
The ALFA endorsement is golden in a statewide Republican Primary. It has been a pivotal gamechanger in almost every statewide race over the last decade. It gave credibility and impetus to the senate campaign of Tommy Tuberville six years ago. Their continuous endorsements of Governor Kay Ivey have been a fortress for her over the years.
This treasured endorsement is not easily given but earned. They also remain loyal to political figures who are loyal to them. They live by the adage that you do not leave old friends to make new friends.
To get the ALFA endorsement, candidates have to go to the county leaders in each county and earn their vote and support. All 67 county ALFA organizations have the same vote. The hierarchy of leadership in Montgomery does not dictate the endorsement. It comes from the grassroots throughout the state.
The ALFA endorsements will be critical in the five close statewide races. These races are for Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Agriculture Commissioner, and the U.S. Senate.
The Lt. Governor’s race will be one of the best on the ballot next year. It will pit two very popular Constitutional officeholders striving to capture another Constitutional office. Secretary of State Wes Allen and Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate will be the two horses in this contest. It is so close that it is difficult to say who is the favorite. One of the factors that will play out is if one of them can do a better job than the other in fundraising.
The Secretary of State race between current State Auditor Andrew Sorrell and dynamic political newcomer Caroleene Dobson began close, but Caroleene Dobson may be moving ahead in this race.
The open Attorney General’s race will be an important race to follow since this is one of the most important constitutional offices. Supreme Court Justice Jay Mitchell is favored to win because he will be endorsed and supported by the Alabama Business Community. However, Assistant Attorney General Katherine Robertson could be a player. She is being supported significantly financially by out-of-state dark money special interests. Blount County District Attorney Pamela Casey is working hard and is very well qualified but is lagging behind in fundraising.
The Agriculture Commissioner race will be one of the best. It will be a three-way horserace between State Senator Jack Williams of Mobile, Agribusiness woman Christina Woerner McInnis of Baldwin County, and Marshall County farmer Corey Hill.
The race for the open Senate Seat of Coach Tuberville will be the big race next year. It will pit Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall against Congressman Barry Moore. Big Washington money will decide this race.
It will be a good political year.
See you next week.
