Doug Jones is going to run for governor.
That was the big news this weekend—that the former U.S. senator from Alabama would be filing his paperwork to run on the Democratic ticket, as first reported by APR—and it was big news. Imagine, the possibility of an actual race for governor in Alabama between a Democrat and a Republican.
But that, of course, assumes that Jones has a shot. That he could somehow catch lightning in a bottle for a second time and upset a Republican in a heavy-Republican state. He couldn’t, could he?
Maybe.
Before we get started down the Pathway of Hopefulness, let’s be crystal clear about a few things. First, Doug Jones is a decided underdog in this race. He has a couple of key disadvantages right from the start, and overcoming them will be very, very tough.
The most significant is the anti-American, anti-democracy straight-ticket voting that Alabama allows in its elections. It is quite likely the biggest factor in this state’s voters electing a steady stream of dopes and goobers to all manner of office, and then pretending that they had nothing to do with it.
The other disadvantage is money. Because the business folks like to keep the money printers turning, they don’t like upsetting the folks who control those printers. So, often begrudgingly, they tend to go along with whatever the party in charge wants and they play nice with the aforementioned dopes and goobers. That usually means forking over the campaign contributions to that party’s candidates and not risking donating to the other side, no matter how much sense it makes or how much more sane that party’s candidates are.
So, yeah, Jones has himself some uphill battles. In the same way that Iwo Jima was an uphill battle.
But then, you remember the outcome at Iwo Jima, right?
Because there are signs of light and hope—cracks in what is seemingly a Republican stone wall around every statewide office. Cracks that are very similar to the ones Jones wriggled through back in 2017, when he beat Roy Moore and claimed an improbable victory.
The first is that, like Moore, a lot—LOT—of people simply don’t like Senator Tommy Tuberville.
Don’t take my word for it, though, take the word of voters who responded to a GOP-leaning poll last week. In that Cygnal poll of 605 likely voters, Tuberville had just 37 percent strong support.
That’s in a poll that had Donald Trump with a 50-percent approval/35-percent disapproval rating.
Now, let me take you back to that 2017 race for Senate.
Just days before that election, a CBS News poll of voters around the state found that among all voters, then-first term Donald Trump had a 57-percent approval rating and a 97-percent approval rating among self-identified Republican voters. Those polled were breaking for Moore 49-43.
So, Roy Moore had higher numbers in the poll, had the endorsement of a much stronger Donald Trump and was seemingly better liked among Republican voters.
Interesting.
But then, Moore and Tuberville are statistically and practically the same candidate. They are not particularly well liked even among their party. They have no real ideas for governing. Their campaigns are built on pandering and hatefulness. And they have very big personal issues that turn off voters.
And no, not personal issues that get you banned from the Gadsden mall.
Tuberville’s issue, like the one that really caused problems for Moore in 2017, is a legal one: He doesn’t meet the residency requirements to run for governor.
If it seems as if I’m stating that as a fact, I am stating it as something I believe to be factual. Having extensively researched his travel records from the past few years, along with the property records, and having spoken with a number of people who know Tuberville well and who have specific knowledge of his travel habits, I don’t believe for a single second that he can prove his primary residence for the past seven consecutive years has been in Alabama. I don’t think he could do it for the past two.
And I believe that as residency challenges are filed and work their way through both the Alabama Republican Party and the Alabama court system, more and more Alabamians will come to believe that as well.
Not following the law is also what caused so much friction between Moore and many Republican voters back then. The alleged sexual abuse of teenage girls was terrible, of course, but poll after poll showed that well into 90-plus percent of Republican voters thought the “liberal media” was behind those attacks. Instead, what seemed to push them from Moore was the fact that he broke the law—by defying courts over the 10 Commandments and over same-sex marriage—seemingly for his personal gain.
The question, I guess, is whether, in this world where a 34-time felon is president, Alabama voters still care about the laws. Or has that too been crushed by the weight of partisan politics?
Finally, the last factor that Jones could have in his favor is that Tuberville is wholly and completely tied to a president who is sinking like a rock tied to a bigger rock. Even in Alabama. And that is a very big problem for Tommy Tuberville.
Because Tuberville has no identity outside of Donald Trump. He has no policies. He has no deep history in the state. He has no endearing moments to fall back on.
If the economy continues to falter, and there’s no reason to think it won’t. If the Epstein files continue to dog Trump, and there’s no reason to think they won’t. If the tariffs continue to send farmers into bankruptcy, and there’s no reason to think they won’t. And if the immigration approach continues to anger Americans, and there’s no reason to think it won’t. What does Tommy Tuberville sell you on?
If current trends hold true, we’re about to enter an America in which Trump is an extraordinarily unpopular president, where the poor and working class of all races are more and more starting to realize their common enemies and where voters are looking to punish someone for the unaffordable lives we’ve all been dealt.
That’s where we are. Now, am I telling you that because of all that there’s a good chance that Doug Jones can beat Tommy Tuberville?
No.
But I’m telling you that there’s a chance.
