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Moore has five-to-seven-point lead in three new polls

Brandon Moseley

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By Brandon Moseley
Alabama Political Reporter

Two new polls show that Roy Moore still has a sizable lead over Clinton-era U.S. Attorney Doug Jones in the battle for U.S. Senate.

A new Emerson College poll shows that Jones still trails Moore 53 percent to 47 percent despite accusations of sexual impropriety in the national press and the mainstream media. The Emerson poll was conducted between Nov. 25 to Nov. 27 and has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.

The Emerson methodology includes who is voting for Moore and Jones as well as who voters would likely vote for if the election were today.  The Alabama Emerson College poll was conducted 2017 under the Supervision of Auburn University Montgomery Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only likely voters

In more bad news for Jones, Change Research is reporting that Jones lead has evaporated and Moore leads Doug Jones in the race for U.S. Senate.  Their last poll had Jones up by three points.  Now Moore leads Jones 49 percent to 44 percent.  They attribute the 8 point change in favor of Moore to energized Republican voters.

Previously 82 percent of Trump voters said they were going to vote in the Senate race.  In their latest polls 88 percent of Trump voters say they are coming to vote and they are turning out for Moore because of the unprecedented media attacks on Judge Moore’s character.  Only 9 percent of Trump voters say that they believe Moore’s accusers.  In mid November, 9 percent of voters said that they planned to vote for a write in candidate that has dropped to just 7 percent.

A poll from Sky Research shows Moore leading Jones 46.7 percent to Jones’ 39.6 percent, with 13.7 percent undecided, according to WBRC and Alabama Today. That poll was conducted on November 21 and had a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

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The Change Research’s  poll showed that Moore’s favorability is still just 43 percent.  93 percent of Moore’s primary voters say they are still voting for Moore.  Only 4 percent have defected to Jones.  Doug Jones has staked his entire campaign on luring Luther Strange voters to his cause; but according to the Change Research Poll 53 percent of Strange voters say they are voting for Moore.  Only 30 percent are voting for Jones.

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Among other GOP candidates’ primary voters Moore is winning 59 percent to just 24 percent for Jones.  Jones however has held onto 99 percent of Democratic Party Primary voters.

When asked if they believed the sexual misconduct allegations against Moore: only 2 percent of Moore primary voters answered that they do.  Only 36 percent of Strange voters believe the allegations and 29 percent of other GOP candidates voters do.  Alternatively, 94 percent of Democratic Primary voters however believe the accusations against Moore.

Among those sampled, 78 percent of Moore primary voters do not believe the accusations, while 32 percent of Strange voters and 40 percent of other GOP candidates’ voters answered that they do not believe the accusations.  Just 1 percent of Democrats do not believe the women claim Moore acted inappropriately.

These numbers all improved for Moore in the Nov. 26 poll over the Nov. 15 poll.  Interesting the numbers of people who answered that they voted for Moore in the primary has increased from 26 percent to 32 percent in the newer poll.  The authors of the poll interpret this as meaning that Republicans are more likely to say that they supported Moore in the primary whether they did or did not.  The Change Research Poll has a margin of error of 2.4 percent.

Another possibility is that the show of support from the Alabama Republican Party Steering Committee and most other Republican groups in the state is filtering down to Republican voters.

Moore is being out raised by Doug Jones who is getting national money from Democrats all over the country.  Moore on the other hand has been abandoned by the Republican National Committee which pulled out of the state, along with the National Republican Senate Leadership Committee, and Senate Leadership Fund after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., called on Moore to step aside and let the Republican Party pick a new candidate.  Without any help from Washington power brokers, Moore is having to rely on help from his small donors.  Despite this Moore has still been able to get ads on television.

Former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Moore was up by 11 points and appeared to be about to blow Jones out of the water; until the Washington Post reported that Moore may have taken advantage of some younger women in the late 1970s in Etowah County after he graduated from law school.

Moore is an alumnus of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and a Vietnam War veteran.

The Special Election for the Senate seat formerly held by Jeff Sessions is on Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2017.

 

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