Connect with us

Elections

Analysis | Tulsa Rally’s Data Mess?

Chris Christie

Published

on

The June 20, 2020, Tulsa Rally appears to have left the incumbent president’s campaign a data mess too big to clean up. A data mess bad enough that it might be time for campaign staff changes. 

What was the Campaign data from the June 20, 2020 Tulsa Rally?

The incumbent president’s campaign manager boasted a week before the Tulsa Rally that over 800,000 people had already registered for tickets and the ticket registration process had already produced the “Biggest data haul and rally sign up of all time by 10x.” 

So, the Campaign bragged that the Tulsa Rally was, for data gathering, ten times bigger than any campaign effort ever. For those familiar with the importance of campaign data today, the “biggest data haul” by ten times might sound more important than the Tulsa Rally itself. 

A campaign event registration process hopes to gather contact information like names, cell phone numbers, email addresses and mailing addresses. Before sending tickets to a registrant, a competent campaign would send the registrant a text or email to confirm that he or she is a real person giving real contact information. 

With contact information, a campaign can text, email and snail mail information directly to supporters and can use the information to target supporters’ social media accounts and to identify supporters’ social media friends, connections or other contacts. Then, a campaign can through social media target fund raising, persuasion pieces and other information and advertisements to those identified.

What happened at the June 20, 2020 Tulsa Rally?

By June 20, 2020, the incumbent president’s campaign tweeted that over 1,000,000 had registered. The Campaign prepared an outdoor overflow venue for over 40,000, for after the 19,200 coliseum venue was filled.

At the June 20, 2020 Tulsa Rally, the Tulsa Fire Marshall reported that less than 6,200 attended, not 19,200. The Campaign claimed 12,000 attended. The outdoor overflow venue had zero attendees, not 40,000. 

Public Service Announcement


What does the Campaign claim happened?

The Campaign tweeted that the underwhelming attendance was due to “the fake news media warning people away” in fear of protesters and coronavirus sickness and “protesters even blocked entrances to the rally at times” 

No one has identified any Tulsa Rally registrants who came but did not attend due to protesters blocking entrances, much less shared photos of thousands of rally registrants who came but protestors blocked. 

So, the incumbent president’s campaign seems to be claiming that over 99 percent of their over one million registrants trusted the “fake news media warning” so much that they did not attend. 

Advertisement

Yet, before registering, registrants would have known there were coronavirus risks, waived any Campaign coronavirus liability by registering, and still confirmed with the Campaign that they would be there. 

What else might explain the underwhelming Tulsa Rally turnout?

The day after the Tulsa Rally, the Campaign tweeted as follows:

“Reporters who wrote gleefully about TikTok and K-Pop fans – without contacting the campaign for comment – behaved unprofessionally and were willing dupes to the charade. Registering for a rally means you’ve RSVPed with a cell phone number and we constantly weed out bogus numbers, as we did with tens of thousands at the Tulsa rally, in calculating our possible attendee pool. These phony ticket requests never factor into our thinking.” 

The Campaign claims a “charade, ” which would be the media’s “bogus claims of ticket hacking.” The media’s “bogus claims” would be numerous media, including the New York Times (republished by Yahoo) and the Chicago Tribune, reporting that TikTok teens and K-pop stans registered but never intended to attend, thereby pranking the Campaign and leading to over one million registrants but only 6,200 attendees. 

The incumbent president’s campaign has changed the registration process for the June 23, 2020 student event in Phoenix, Arizona. The Campaign’s new registration form requires a “Social Media LINK (Instagram, twitter, or facebook).” This new form suggests the Campaign might not really believe the media’s “claims of ticket hacking” are “bogus.”

Did the youth of America prank the incumbent president’s campaign?

In one viral video, a TikToker said she regretted that she had registered for two to attend the Tulsa Rally, and even confirmed her attendance, but had forgotten that she had to collect the lint on her floor the day of the Tulsa Rally and sort the lint by size. She also encouraged those who wanted to register to use a good cell phone number and zip code, so they would get their tickets. Another TikToker had a similar video with 1.7 million views. And a  K-pop stans had a similar video.

Perhaps based on these videos and other social media, the incumbent president’s campaign now has lots of data from people who oppose his campaign enough to prank them. 

How much prankster data is in the “Biggest data haul” by ten times?

First, let’s guess at how much useful campaign data was included in the registration data. According to the Tulsa Fire Marshall, an independent source responsible for the safety of attendees, less than 6,200 attended.

For a free campaign event, one knows that many registrants will no show. With 6,200 attendees, if one had expected only 10 percent of the registrants to attend (90 percent no shows, a disappointing percentage), the number of true MAGA registrants (people actually intending to attend) would be about 62,000. 

Note that 10,000 attendees would be one percent of one million Tulsa Rally registrants. And the Fire Marshall counted less than 6,200.

To be a registrant the incumbent president’s campaign did not “weed out,” the registrant gave at least a good cell phone number or email address, and then confirmed the registration.

With one million Tulsa Rally registrants and this estimate of about 62,000 true MAGA registrants, about 938,000 pranked the Campaign. That would mean well over 90 percent of the Campaign’s “Biggest data haul” were pranksters.

What can the Campaign do now?

The incumbent president’s campaign surely does not want to be repeatedly contacting the pranksters. The time and expense would be a waste at best. Being blocked by pranksters after receiving emails and having ads ignored on social media would cause the Campaign problems. And contacting pranksters would seem to be inviting more pranks.  

Cleaning up a data set is a normal process. If most of the data is bad though, one cannot really use it for anything. Most would expect that, with over 90 percent prankster data, this “Biggest data haul” cannot be salvaged. 

Often, campaigns pay outside consultants on a per person basis for campaign data. At times, internal staff is paid this way too. The incumbent president’s campaign should think long and hard before paying anyone based on this “Biggest data haul and rally sign up of all time by 10x.”

Other campaigns should learn from the June 20, 2020 Tulsa Rally failures. Ten times more campaign data than ever gathered before sounds way too good to be true. If the data seem too good to be true, they probably are. Look at the data.

The Campaign should think about who is responsible for missing that the data was almost all from pranksters. One million registrants for the Tulsa Rally screams something is wrong. I’ll bet a barbecue that even a cursory look at the raw data would have made the pranking clear. 

If the campaign were mine, it might be time for Campaign staff changes.

Chris Christie is a guest columnist who regularly writes for the Alabama Political Reporter.

Advertisement

Elections

Former UA president Judy Bonner endorses Jeff Sessions

Staff

Published

on

By

GOP Senate candidate Jeff Sessions.

Former University of Alabama President Judy Bonner has penned a letter endorsing Jeff Sessions in the race for U.S. Senate.

“During his 20 years in the Senate, Jeff worked side-by-side with our senior senator, Richard Shelby, always fighting for Alabama values and looking after Alabamians. I’m sure Senator Shelby would agree that no finer person has ever served in the U.S. Senate than Jeff Sessions. Jeff is a man with the highest degree of integrity, character and honesty. Together, they made an impressive team for our state and can do so again,” Bonner said. 

“When Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina hit Alabama in 2004 and 2005, Jeff and his wife, Mary, were literally passing water bottles out in Bayou La Batre and helping provide food and shelter to those affected throughout South Alabama. And when the Deepwater Horizon oil spill occurred in 2010, Senator Sessions, Senator Shelby and my brother, Jo, were keeping the pressure on Ken Feinberg and BP to make sure our state was compensated,” Bonner said. 

“While in the Senate, Jeff visited every county – all 67 – at least once a year. Like Senator Shelby, he knows Alabama like the back of his hand. And when our people have needed their senator to help them cut through the bureaucracy at the VA, Social Security or one of the many other federal agencies, Senator Sessions and his team were always there for us. He knows how to represent Alabama in Washington – and serve all of us – because he has been a servant leader his entire life,” Bonner wrote.

Bonner pointed to Sessions’s ability to deliver results for Alabama immediately.

“Another important point to consider is there will come a day when Senator Shelby decides to retire. Do we want our next senior senator to have more than 20-years-experience and seniority or do we want someone who is still learning his way around the Capitol?” Bonner asked. 

Bonner concluded her letter with this note about Jeff Sessions:

Public Service Announcement


“He is Alabama through and through. I hope you will consider giving him your support and trust as well. He has never let Alabama down and he never will.”

 

Continue Reading

Congress

Perry Hooper endorses Tuberville

Brandon Moseley

Published

on

Former State Rep. Perry Hooper Jr., Trump National Victory committee member, formally endorsed former Auburn head football coach Tommy Tuberville for U.S. Senate on Thursday.

“I have known Coach Tommy Tuberville since he first arrived at Auburn in 1999,” Hooper said. “Since day one when I went to watch my sons practice football, he was always talking to me about Republican Party Politics. I knew it was in his blood. Little did I know at the time, I would be joining the President in supporting him for the United States Senate.”

“Coaching football is more about leadership than X’s and O’s,” Hooper continued. “Tommy’s leadership abilities were the first thing that impressed me when we first met. He has been places recruiting that few people running for office have. He has been in some of the poorest neighborhoods in the country, convincing Mommas how he was going to help mold their 17 years old sons into men. He really cares about everyday people and what is best for our neighborhoods and schools. He has been a great teacher of life lessons as well as an outstanding football coach. He brought in former Auburn Linebacker Chette Williams to serve as the Auburn football team chaplain. He is a dedicated Christian and dedicated to his family which includes his former players. This is what this country needs now – leaders not career politicians.”

“Tommy Tuberville is a principled, free market conservative who has the support of President Trump and has put together a great campaign to defeat Doug Jones,” said David McIntosh, president of the Club for Growth PAC “President Trump’s endorsement is by far the most important endorsement a candidate can earn for a Republican Primary, and we are glad to join President Trump in supporting Tommy Tuberville.”

Club for Growth PAC has been strongly supporting Tommy Tuberville for Senate and Barry Moore and Bill Hightower in the Second and First Congressional Districts.

During these turbulent times, the President needs Tommy Tuberville on his team.,” Hooper said. “As the President stated in his endorsement “Tommy Tuberville loves his country and will never let it down”. He is 100 % behind the President and the Trump Agenda. He could easily have retired after his long successful football career, but there is one more chapter in his life – serving in the US Senate. He has been a winner on and off the football field; as Senator he will be a big win for America and Alabama.”

Hooper is a member of the Alabama Republican Executive Committee and a strong supporter of Auburn University athletics.

Public Service Announcement


Tuberville faces former U.S. Sen. Jeff Sessions on Tuesday, July 14, in the Republican primary runoff. The winner of the Republican nomination will face incumbent Sen. Doug Jones, D-Alabama, in the Nov. 3 general election.

Continue Reading

Elections

Moore, Coleman campaigns spar after Roby endorses Coleman

Brandon Moseley

Published

on

Barry Moore, left, and Jeff Coleman, right, are in the Republican runoff in the 2nd Congressional District.

Incumbent Congresswoman Martha Roby on Thursday endorsed Dothan businessman Jeff Coleman in Tuesday’s Republican primary runoff. Barry Moore, who challenged Roby’s re-election in the 2018 Republican primary, dismissed the endorsement.

“I fully support Jeff Coleman to be our next Congressman,” Roby said in a statement. “Jeff Coleman is a businessman who supports cutting government regulation and lowering taxes to help grow a strong economy. Jeff strongly supports our men and women serving in uniform, as well as our veterans. The Second District needs someone who will support our interests right here in southeast Alabama, particularly our farmers. Jeff will do just that. He’ll get results for Alabama.”

Former State Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) said in a statement: “While we appreciate Martha’s service, let’s remember that she has been part of the establishment in Washington for a long time–the same swamp President Trump has been trying to drain. The people of District 2 will always remember that Martha Roby turned her back on Donald Trump when he needed us most. She was the first member of Congress to draft a letter asking him to drop out of the Presidential race. That is something that we will never forget. President Trump needs our support. Can we really trust Roby/Coleman for that?”

“I am proud to be endorsed by The House Freedom Fund, the PAC of the House Freedom Caucus,” Moore continued. “The members of the Freedom Caucus are considered the President’s closest advisors in the House and they have been leading the conservative fight in Congress. The voter’s choice is the same old swamp with Coleman or Barry Moore, who is supported by the most Conservative group in Congress. I look forward to representing the people of District 2 and I am thankful for their support.”

The Coleman campaign responded to Moore’s response.

Coleman campaign manager Dalton Dismukes said, “Mr. Moore cites Representative Roby’s service as “she has been part of the establishment in Washington for a long time” as she served five terms. This is interesting because in the Tuesday WTVY Debate, Mr. Moore, when pressed about his support of term limits and how long he would stay went on to say he would serve “maybe 10 years–five terms” Just seems hypocritical and inconsistent.”

“Mr. Moore also cites Rep. Roby’s past with President Trump saying Rep. Roby was part of, “The same swamp President Trump has been trying to drain.” But he didn’t mention that President Trump actually endorsed Rep. Roby in 2018 when he tweeted, “I fully endorse Martha for Alabama 2nd Congressional District!,” Dismukes added. “Lastly, and arguably most importantly, Mr. Moore is quoted as saying, “The people of District 2 will always remember when Martha Roby turned her back on Donald Trump when he needed us most.” Yet he is proud to be endorsed by Club for Growth who spent $7,000,000 against Trump the very same year and the very same election.”

Public Service Announcement


Club for Growth PAC is supporting Moore as well as Senate candidate Tommy Tuberville and First Congressional candidate Bill Hightower in Tuesday’s Republican primary runoff.

Coleman has been endorsed by the Business Council of Alabama, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and the Alabama Farmer’s Federation.

Continue Reading

Elections

Congresswoman Martha Roby endorses Jeff Coleman

Staff

Published

on

By

Congressional candidate Jeff Coleman. (CAMPAIGN)

Congresswoman Martha Roby endorsed Jeff Coleman for Congress Thursday. “I fully support Jeff Coleman to be our next Congressman,” Roby said. “Jeff Coleman is a businessman who supports cutting government regulation and lowering taxes to help grow a strong economy. Jeff strongly supports our men and women serving in uniform, as well as our veterans.”

She continued, “The Second District needs someone who will support our interests right here in southeast Alabama, particularly our farmers. Jeff will do just that. He’ll get results for Alabama.”

“I am humbled and honored to receive this strong endorsement from Representative Roby. She has been a staunch supporter of our military men and women, as well as our farmers. I am looking forward to continuing her legacy of fighting for our conservative Alabama values, protecting the family farm, and fighting to ensure our veterans and active-duty personnel have all the resources they need,” Coleman said of the endorsement.

Coleman has now been endorsed by 10 mayors, multiple business associations in the state, the U.S. Chamber, and Roby. Coleman finished the Republican Primary on March 3 with 38 percent of the vote — 18 points ahead of his closest challenger.

Coleman has never run for public office and touts a 35-year successful business career.

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Authors

Advertisement

The V Podcast