New results from The Alabama Poll highlight just how unsettled Alabama’s 2026 Republican primary landscape remains—and how sharply concerns about affordability are shaping the electorate.
Eighty percent of likely May 2026 Republican primary voters identified cost-of-living pressures as the most important issue facing the state, citing inflation, insurance costs and the broader economy. When asked which everyday expenses cause the most concern, 58 percent pointed to groceries and food, followed by insurance costs at 33 percent and healthcare at 30 percent.
“The 2026 Republican primaries will be won on the issues, and if you’re not talking about lowering costs for families, you’re not winning,” said Michael Lowry, who leads the The Alabama Poll. “This survey shows that affordability isn’t a side issue – it’s the main event, and it’s likely to define how voters evaluate candidates up and down the ballot.”
Key statewide Republican primary findings
Lieutenant Governor: At the time the survey was conducted, former University of Alabama quarterback AJ McCarron led the GOP field with 31 percent support, followed by Secretary of State Wes Allen at 18 percent, Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate at 8 percent and Nicole Wadsworth at 2 percent. Forty-one percent of voters were undecided. McCarron has since withdrawn from the race.
U.S. Senate: Attorney General Steve Marshall leads the Republican primary with 30 percent support, followed by Representative Barry Moore at 12 percent, Jared Hudson at 8 percent, Rodney Walker at 3 percent and Morgan Murphy at 1 percent. Forty-six percent of voters remain undecided.
Attorney General: The contest remains wide open, with 72 percent of respondents undecided. Alabama Supreme Court Justice Jay Mitchell receives 12 percent, followed by Katherine Robertson at 10 percent and Pamela Casey at 7 percent.
Secretary of State: Sixty-four percent of voters remain undecided. At the time of the survey, State Auditor Andrew Sorrell led Caroleene Dobson 21 percent to 14 percent. Sorrell has since announced he plans to seek reelection as auditor.
Commissioner of Agriculture: Nearly eight in 10 voters—79 percent—remain undecided. Jack Williams leads with 10 percent, followed by Corey Hill at 7 percent and Christina Woerner McInnis at 5 percent.
Voter profile: conservative, evangelical, pro-Trump
The poll finds likely GOP primary voters continue to fit a strong conservative profile:
- 83 percent identify as conservative
- 56 percent say they are “very conservative”
- 75 percent identify as Evangelical or Born-Again Christians
- 47 percent identify as both very conservative and born-again
President Donald Trump holds an 88 percent approval rating among likely Republican primary voters, including 72 percent who approve of both him and his policies. Approval rises to 95 percent among conservatives and 96 percent among Republicans.
Candidate images
Among tested favorability ratings:
- Steve Marshall: 45 percent favorable / 12 percent unfavorable
- AJ McCarron: 44 percent favorable / 14 percent unfavorable
- Wes Allen: 27 percent favorable / 8 percent unfavorable
These results reflect the early-stage nature of the statewide fields, where name recognition remains uneven and large undecided blocs persist.
Methodology
The Alabama Poll surveyed 600 likely May 2026 Republican primary voters across Alabama on December 15, 16 and 18, 2025. A multi-modal approach was used, combining live telephone interviews (landline and cell) with self-administered text-to-online surveys conducted through a secure platform. Interviews were randomly selected and stratified by area, race or ethnicity, age, gender and vote history to reflect expected turnout patterns from prior even-year primary elections. Respondents were screened for likelihood to vote in the May 2026 Republican Primary.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. The margin of error increases for sub-groups and cross-tabulations. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding and respondent refusals.
What the results suggest
Taken together, the findings paint a picture of a Republican electorate that remains deeply conservative but increasingly focused on day-to-day costs—groceries, insurance and healthcare. With large numbers of voters still undecided in nearly every statewide race, candidates who speak directly and credibly to economic pressure points may hold an advantage as the 2026 primary season unfolds.
At the same time, the brief surge and withdrawal of AJ McCarron from the lieutenant governor’s race underscores just how quickly attention and support can consolidate in a fluid political environment.
