At this stage of a May primary, Alabama voters are usually making choices.
This year, they’re not.
And that matters—not because early indecision is unusual, but because of who these voters are and what they are telling us.
According to data from The Alabama Poll, Republican primary voters are not disengaged. More than 87 percent say they are certain to vote. More than 82 percent approve of President Donald Trump. Nearly 59 percent believe the state is headed in the right direction.
This is an engaged electorate—one aligned with its party and generally satisfied with its direction. And yet, across the ballot, it is not choosing.
That contradiction defines the 2026 cycle. It is not confusion. It is a signal.
In the U.S. Senate race, Barry Moore leads with 22.8 percent, followed by Steve Marshall at 20.7 percent and Jared Hudson at 19.0 percent. Even after millions in outside spending, the margin between first and second is just over two points—well within the margin of error—while more than a third of voters remain firmly undecided.
Money has moved, but voters have not.
In the Lieutenant Governor’s race, Wes Allen leads at 18.7 percent, yet more than 60 percent of voters remain undecided. John Wahl entered the race on the final day of qualifying and carries an endorsement from President Trump. He sits at 7.0 percent in early polling.
Endorsements have landed, but they have yet to translate into support.
The Attorney General’s race offers the clearest example of the broader dynamic.
Jay Mitchell leads at 12.3 percent, followed by Katherine Robertson at 9.8 percent and Pamela Casey at 9.3 percent. Nearly 70 percent of voters remain undecided. Just as significant, the candidates remain largely unknown. Favorability ratings hover around 11 to 12 percent for all three, while more than half of Republican primary voters say they have never heard of them.
Despite that, Casey has spent roughly $50,000 and remains in a statistical dead heat with better-funded opponents—another sign that spending alone is not moving voters.
This is not simply a competitive race. It is a race that has not yet taken hold.
And that matters, because this is where the money is. More than $6 million has already been raised and spent, with outside groups actively engaged and early messaging beginning to take shape.
Yet the polling remains compressed.
Exposure is not the problem. Connection is.
The Agriculture Commissioner’s race reinforces the pattern. No candidate reaches double digits, more than 75 percent of voters remain undecided, and a clear majority of the electorate is unfamiliar with the candidates.
Across the ballot, the pattern is consistent: activity without alignment, visibility without decision.
The explanation becomes clearer when placed alongside what voters say they care about.
Nearly 79 percent of Republican primary voters say the state’s top priority should be an economic issue affecting their family. Half cite groceries and food costs. More than a third point to utility bills. Healthcare, insurance, and gas prices all rank well ahead of immigration or border security, which just over 10 percent identify as the top issue.
This is a practical electorate, focused less on abstraction than on cost.
Yet much of the early campaign messaging—particularly in the higher-profile races—has not addressed those concerns directly.
That gap is where the undecided voters are.
Not confused. Not disengaged.
Unpersuaded.
In past cycles, that gap tends to close earlier.
In 2022, Gov. Kay Ivey entered the primary with a clearly defined identity that voters recognized early. In the U.S. Senate race, Katie Britt consolidated support well before the final stretch, as voters aligned around a message that connected economic priorities with a broader political argument.
Those races were competitive, but they were not unclear.
By this point in the calendar, voters were moving.
In 2026, they are still waiting.
Alabama Republican primaries rarely remain static. When movement comes, it tends to come quickly—driven by a message that resonates, a contrast that clarifies, or a moment that forces decision.
But that moment has not arrived.
These voters are not disengaged from politics. They are engaged, attentive, and preparing to vote.
But across race after race, they are not yet convinced that any candidate is speaking directly to what matters most in their lives.
That distinction is becoming decisive.
Because this is not an undecided electorate.
It is an unconvinced one.
