Race rater shifts CD2 race to leans Democrat in final 2026 projection

Election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball gave U.S. Representative Shomari Figures, D-Alabama, a slight edge Monday in his bid to retain his congressional seat.

In its final 2026 election forecast, released a day before Election Day, the nonpartisan forecaster shifted Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democrat.”

The change marked the third time since September that Sabato’s Crystal Ball has revised its forecast for the district to more strongly favor Figures, the incumbent.

The forecaster shifted the district from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” in early September and to “Toss-up” last week.

Nationally, Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicted Democrats would win majorities in the U.S. House and Senate and hold a majority of governorships in the 2026 midterm elections.

The forecaster projected that 239 House seats at least lean Democratic, while 196 at least lean Republican. It projected that Democrats would hold at least 53 Senate seats and Republicans would hold at least 47.

It also projected that Democrats would hold at least 28 governors’ offices and Republicans would hold at least 22.

Overall, the organization projected Democratic gains of 24 House seats, six Senate seats and four governors’ offices.

The 2nd District has emerged as one of Alabama’s most closely watched races after the Legislature adopted a congressional map during its May special session that shifted the district to favor Republicans, eliminating its status as a Black opportunity district.

Figures, who opposed the new map during the special session, has sought to retain his seat by rallying Black voters in cities such as Montgomery and Selma while emphasizing affordability throughout his campaign.

“We know that the deck has been stacked. We know that the rules have been changed in the middle of the game, but we know what we’ve got to do,” Figures told attendees at a recent Montgomery rally. “All we’ve got to do is show up. All we’ve got to do is show out. All we’ve got to do is fight.”

Figures faces Republican challenger and former state Representative Rhett Marques, R-Enterprise, who declined the incumbent’s invitation to debate early last month.

“In Alabama’s Second District, the choice on the ballot truly comes down to two things: Craziness or common sense,” Marques said at President Donald Trump’s Mobile rally.

The Cook Political Report shifted 12 additional House seats toward Democrats last week but continued to rate the 2nd District as leaning Republican in its final 2026 race ratings, released Monday.

Remington Research Group, a corporate polling firm founded by Republican strategist Jeff Roe, reported in late October that Marques held a slight lead, with 48 percent support to Figures’ 46 percent.

An August internal poll from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee showed the race tied, with each candidate at 46 percent and 8 percent of voters undecided.

Figures has maintained a fundraising advantage throughout his reelection campaign, collecting more than $2 million in total contributions compared with Marques’ nearly $1.7 million.

Figures raised more than $1 million during the third quarter and had nearly $1.2 million in cash on hand as of mid-October.

Marques raised about $317,000 during the same period and reported roughly $170,000 on hand as of October 14.

Trump and U.S. Senator Katie Britt, R-Alabama, a fellow Enterprise Republican, have repeatedly endorsed Marques. The Alabama Farmers Federation, Alabama Forestry Association and Manufacture Alabama have also endorsed him.

Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin, Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed and former U.S. Attorney General Loretta Lynch have endorsed Figures.

APR left messages with the Figures and Marques campaigns seeking comment on the revised Sabato’s Crystal Ball rating.