Corey Hill holds a narrow lead over Christina Woerner McInnis in Alabama’s Republican agriculture commissioner runoff, though nearly 40 percent of likely runoff voters remain undecided, according to a new poll.
The Alabama Poll, conducted May 28 among 600 likely Republican runoff voters, found Hill leading McInnis 33.1 percent to 27.3 percent. Another 39.6 percent of respondents said they were undecided.
Michael Lowry, Alabama Poll founder, called the race the most unpredictable of Alabama’s four statewide Republican runoff contests because of the unusually large number of undecided voters.
“Hill’s lead is real, but with nearly 4 in 10 still undecided, Agriculture is the most volatile race on the ballot,” Lowry wrote in the poll’s summary.
Neither candidate received a majority in the May 19 Republican primary, triggering the June 16 runoff.
In unofficial primary results, Hill led the field with 150,598 votes, or 35.2 percent, while McInnis received 149,179 votes, or 34.86 percent.
McInnis, a fifth-generation farmer from Baldwin County and vice president of Woerner Farms, has campaigned on her agricultural background and experience in Alabama’s farming industry. Throughout the campaign, she has emphasized support for family farms, expanded markets for Alabama agricultural products and stronger rural communities.
Hill, a Marshall County cattle farmer, has focused his campaign on promoting Alabama agriculture, supporting producers and increasing economic opportunities for the state’s agricultural sector.
Lowry wrote that Hill’s advantage appears to come from voters who are more likely to participate in a low-turnout runoff election. He noted that while McInnis led the primary field, Hill currently performs better among frequent Republican primary voters and those who said they are certain to vote June 16.
“Hill leads among the voters most likely to actually turn out, which is his real asset in a low-turnout runoff. But this race can move quickly and cheaply with late advertising or earned media,” Lowry wrote.
Lowry rated the race “Lean Hill,” while noting that late advertising or other campaign activity could quickly reshape the contest.
The winner of the June 16 runoff will face Democratic nominee Ron Sparks in the November general election. The winner will succeed outgoing Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate.
The survey was conducted using live telephone interviews and text-message surveys. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
