Doug Jones has a chance.
But he’s still the underdog.
That’s what you should take away from a poll that has been spread around the state over the past 24 hours. It was conducted by a pro-“school choice” organization called the Yes, Every Kid Foundation and surveyed 601 likely Alabama voters between July 8 and 11.
The headline from that poll was that Tommy Tuberville held just a 49-41 lead over Jones.
That’s notable for a few reasons. First, that’s much closer than any other poll has shown the race to be. It is particularly close when you consider the demographics of the poll—56 percent of respondents identified as Republicans and only 32 percent identified as Democrats—and the results of the other races and issues measured.
Barry Moore was up 47-32 over Democratic challenger Everett Wess, and Katherine Robertson was up 47-31 over Jeff McLaughlin. Nearly 70 percent of respondents viewed Alabama’s CHOOSE Act favorably, and more than 80 percent favored “education freedom.”
Those are some fairly heavy Republican numbers.
But then there’s Tuberville, who is apparently losing a large chunk of self-identified Republican voters to Jones. If the polling demographics are 56-32 Republican and the Democrat is pulling 41 percent, it stands to reason that the Democratic candidate has successfully turned GOP voters—and a sizable number of them.
Those are all reasons for optimism if you’re hoping for a Jones victory.
And there are more reasons.
The polling occurred a couple of days before Tuberville’s now-infamous comments about data centers, which he made July 13 at the annual summer conference of the Alabama Sheriffs Association. He essentially said Alabama would welcome data centers under his leadership—“we’re gonna do data centers” were his exact words—and dismissed concerns about data centers as “bullcrap” driven by Chinese propaganda.
Those comments did not sit well. And they would seem to be particularly problematic for Tuberville now.
That’s because Tuberville is a very polarizing candidate. Either you like him or you don’t, and there’s not much middle ground. Yes, there will be quite a few reluctant Tuberville voters among traditional Republicans who simply can’t bring themselves to vote for a Democrat, but those margins are much smaller for the former Auburn coach.
That’s usually fine because Tuberville’s base of support among the hard-right wing of the Republican Party is enough to carry him to an easy win over most Democrats in most election cycles.
The data center issue, however, cuts into that base of support and crosses all demographic lines. Most importantly for Tuberville, it is a particularly significant issue among the don’t-tread-on-me conservative crowd—those rural voters who should be reliable Tuberville supporters.
Those folks likely will never vote for Jones. But thumbing your nose at their concerns about data centers could lead some of them not to vote at all.
Another problem for Tuberville—and another issue not covered by this poll—is his recent presentation on the Senate floor, where he went scorched earth against Social Security. He literally stood in front of a sign that read, “Social Security is a scam.”
I’m not going to debate the merits of that argument, but from a campaign standpoint, if a large portion of your base consists of seniors and people nearing retirement age, suggesting that you’d blow up their safety net probably isn’t of great comfort to them.
All of that whittles away at the reliable support Tuberville should be enjoying at this point and opens the door for Jones more than just a bit. The 8-point lead for Tuberville was already surprisingly low, but factor in data centers, Social Security and the Republican-heavy pool of respondents, and it looks much worse.
But let’s also have a reality check here.
First, it’s August. There are still 90 days before the election, and Tuberville has barely started running ads or seriously campaigning. You can bet we’re going to be inundated with ads during football games over the next three months calling Doug Jones a woke communist liberal snowflake who hates America and loves AOC and Mamdani.
No matter how stupid you might find those ads, they will be somewhat effective among the very people I’ve just told you Tuberville could be losing over data centers and Social Security.
Additionally, Alabama has straight-ticket voting. That means no one has to actually darken the little circle beside Tuberville’s name on the ballot. They can simply vote straight Republican, call themselves a true patriot and head home. Tuberville gets the vote all the same.
It is a huge hurdle for any Democrat at this point. So is the Democratic label.
Credit where it’s due: Republicans have done a very good job over the years of dirtying up the word “Democrat” and pushing their core voters to consider it an insult. A large portion of Alabama voters would not consider voting for a Democrat right now, even if that Democrat’s policies would improve their lives. They’ve been conditioned to think of any Democrat as bad.
All of those things are huge hills for Jones to climb—hills that continue to make him a substantial underdog.
But there are pathways for him, too.
Alabama’s voter participation rate is horrid, especially among Black voters and young voters—two groups you would think might be far less likely to vote for Tuberville. It’s unclear whether the Supreme Court’s recent efforts to undermine minority voting rights will substantially motivate people to vote. It’s even less clear what effect a truly competitive race for the state’s top office might have on voter turnout. And it’s even more unclear what moderate, traditional Republicans will do on Election Day.
There’s also national politics to consider. Tuberville has tied himself, for better or worse, to Donald Trump. That means he has also tied himself somewhat to national issues, such as gas prices, energy costs and yet another endless war. Those national issues, and how they play out over the next 90 days, could be critical to this race.
So, what am I saying after all of this?
Basically, the same thing I said at the start: If you’re a Democrat, I’m Lloyd Christmas telling you there’s a chance. And if you’re a Republican supporting Tuberville, I’m telling you that you’ve still got a two-score lead, but the other team is at the goal line and your quarterback keeps throwing interceptions.
