The Tennessee Valley Authority has released its Preliminary Final 2026 Integrated Resource Plan, outlining a shift in the federally owned utility’s energy strategy that scales back expectations for wind energy while increasing reliance on natural gas generation to meet rising electricity demand across the Southeast.
The plan comes as TVA sees growth driven by economic development projects, including data centers, advanced manufacturing facilities and population increases throughout its seven-state service territory, which includes parts of Alabama.
TVA’s service territory spans parts of seven Southeastern states. The utility provides electricity to about 10 million people through 153 local power companies, as well as directly to large industrial and federal customers.
According to the plan, TVA projects electricity demand could increase by about 16 percent by 2040 under its baseline forecast and by as much as 60 percent under a high-growth scenario.
To meet that demand, TVA’s preferred portfolios call for significant additions of natural gas generation. The utility is considering between 4 and 13 gigawatts of new combined-cycle gas capacity and another 3 to 13 gigawatts of combustion turbine capacity through 2040.
The plan also contemplates extending the operation of some coal-fired generation units into the 2040s, a departure from earlier expectations that coal generation would continue to decline.
The updated resource plan also represents a marked retreat from wind energy compared with TVA’s draft 2025 Integrated Resource Plan.
The 2025 draft, which was never finalized after the TVA Board of Directors lost a quorum last summer, identified up to 4 gigawatts of new wind energy by 2035 as part of a strategy to diversify the utility’s generation portfolio. The new 2026 plan no longer includes a standalone wind deployment target and recommends pausing additional wind development because of what TVA describes as “cost and portfolio fit challenges.”
The plan also removes high-voltage direct current imported wind power as a planning option. It selects limited amounts of wind generation in two portfolios under the utility’s highest-growth scenario.
Wind advocates from the Southeastern Wind Coalition said the change could risk TVA’s energy mix diversity at a time when the region’s electricity needs are expanding.
“A resilient electric system is built on a diverse portfolio of resources, and wind has repeatedly demonstrated that it can deliver affordable, reliable power while complementing other technologies,” said Katharine Kollins, president of the Southeastern Wind Coalition. “We believe TVA’s long-term planning should continue to reflect that.”
The debate over TVA’s future energy mix comes as the utility has increasingly emphasized reliability and dispatchable generation in response to record demand growth.
TVA has announced several major generation projects in recent years, including plans to build nearly 5,500 megawatts of new natural gas capacity by 2029 and investments in small modular nuclear reactor technology at the Clinch River site in Tennessee. The utility also has pursued solar development and battery storage projects but has repeatedly argued that intermittent renewable resources alone cannot meet the region’s accelerating power demands.
The utility is accepting public comments on the Preliminary Final 2026 Integrated Resource Plan through July 22 and will hold a public webinar July 2. The plan and its accompanying Environmental Impact Statement will then be presented to the TVA Board of Directors for consideration during its August meeting.
