It is now officially Doug Jones vs. Tommy Tuberville.
For months now, it has been widely assumed that the Democratic and Republican frontrunners would face off to determine who will replace Kay Ivey as Alabama’s next governor, but we still needed to go through the motions of a primary.
It was a cake walk for both.
Tuberville was declared the GOP winner before the first drinks were poured at his watch party on Tuesday evening, as he picked up 85 percent of the vote on his way to an easy win. Jones was predicted to face a somewhat stiffer challenge from Will Boyd, but it proved only slightly more taxing, as Jones won the Democratic nomination with nearly 80 percent.
“Tonight, voters made clear that they are ready for change,” Jones said. “I’m deeply grateful for the trust people have placed in me and humbled by everyone who made this victory possible—our staff, volunteers, supporters, and every person who cast a ballot.
“This primary was about more than one campaign. It was about the belief that Alabama deserves a state government that works for the people—not just the well-connected and powerful. Tonight, we begin the work of building that future together. Now, we unite and move forward, because building a better Alabama will take all of us.”
As Jones was seeking to shrink the race to inside the state borders and focus on local issues, Tuberville immediately pivoted to national talking points, utilizing scare tactics and curious attacks on Democrats in general.
“I’m not running against (Jones). I’m really not,” Tuberville told the crowd at his watch party in Birmingham. “You know who I’m running against? I’m running against socialism. And communism. I’m running against people that believe in killing the unborn. I’m running against people that I don’t know if they believe in God anymore.They have nothing positive to say about this country. We’re gonna talk about how great this country is, how much greater we can make it, how much greater we can make the state of Alabama.”
The two approaches on Tuesday are likely a microcosm of the campaigns that will follow over the next several months.
Jones has positioned himself both publicly and privately as the safer option for everyone, including Alabama’s business community. He will lean heavily on his time in the Senate, where he was one of the most bipartisan senators in the country and was highly effective at getting legislation passed. And he’ll likely push to highlight Tuberville’s flimsy knowledge of government operations and seeming disinterest at times in the actual job of governing.
Tuberville, in the meantime, will undoubtedly seek to paint Jones as a far-left liberal and utilize all of the tried and true Republican talking points that have effectively dirtied up the label of Democrat. And why not? In a state where Republicans dominate such rhetoric is typically very effective.
Tuberville will enter the general election campaign with a big advantage in voter base and money—two things that usually spell disaster for challengers. There are a couple of flies in this ointment, however.
One is Tuberville’s residency issues. The other is the national climate, and particularly the nation’s waning patience with President Donald Trump.
The residency issue is perhaps the biggest unknown, and therefore potentially the biggest problem for Tuberville. Multiple sources have told APR that a lawsuit challenging Tuberville’s nomination and placement on the ballot will be filed within days of Tuesday’s primary elections. That lawsuit will claim that Tuberville has not met the residency requirements of Alabama’s constitution for a gubernatorial candidate—that a person must be a resident citizen of the state for the seven years immediately preceding the election.
It would seem a laughable claim that a state’s U.S. senator—the position in which Tuberville has served for the past six years—could not meet basic residency requirements. But previous reporting by APR, along with several other state and national media outlets, have raised serious questions about Tuberville’s residency. His primary home appears to be in Santa Rosa Beach, Florida, and it will be up to Tuberville to provide the courts with enough information to refute that appearance.
Should he fail to do so, Tuberville could face the possibility of being removed from the ballot. What might happen from there is anyone’s guess.
Assuming he remains on the ballot, he could face an electorate that is increasingly hostile towards Republican candidates, and particularly those cozied up tightly to Trump, as Tuberville is. The president’s approval rating is at an all-time low and dropping steadily, as the war in Iran and the cost of everything continues to weigh heavily on Americans. Even in deep red Alabama, where Trump still enjoys above average support, the last several months of almost everything getting worse for working Americans, as the wealthy continue to grow more prosperous and get more breaks, has been taxing.
Taking advantage of that climate in a way that lures hesitant conservatives over to the Democratic side, at least in one race, will be Jones’ challenge. And it is one no candidate has pulled off here in more than two decades. There are narrow pathways, as Kentucky’s Democratic Governor Andy Beshears has shown, and Jones is likely to walk a similar, moderate trail.
